| Market signal | Last | 1 month | YTD |
| S&P 500 SPY · benchmark | $777.22 | +0.9% | +13.8% |
| Cost of capital US 10-yr | 5.28% | +10.3% | +26.0% |
| Nuclear sector NUKZ · sector ETF | $61.78 | −6.0% | −6.5% |
| Uranium spot monthly settlement · Sep 30 | $89.63 | −0.1% | −4.9% |
| Developers OKLO, SMR, NNE · equal weight | — | −13.8% | −49.2% |
| NuScale SMR · biggest mover | $7.67 | −20.9% | −53.0% |
In context: The cost of capital is up 26% on the year, and it is the number that decides whether a new reactor gets built at all, because a reactor pays interest through years of construction before it sells a single megawatt-hour. Uranium barely moved on the month, so nothing here points at fuel. The pressure sits on the developers, down about half on the year, while the licensed operators are the ones signing contracts.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, closes through October 7. Cameco for the UxC and TradeTech uranium series.
This week at a glance
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The subscription would help power Oracle's Project Lighthouse data center campus in Port Washington, Wisconsin, developed with OpenAI, and still needs approval from the state's Public Service Commission.
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AB 2647 requires a cost, reliability and workforce assessment of new nuclear by January 1, 2028; SB 925 orders a fusion strategic plan by the end of 2029, the state's first reconsideration of a decades-old nuclear framework.
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The Ulsan-based center pools shipyards, a classification society and four universities to develop and demonstrate marine small reactor technology, extending the SMR race into maritime use.
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The pre-application filing spans four CFR parts covering fuel fabrication through module deployment; AMPERA targets a combined license application by October 2027.
Source → live map at getentel.com/nukemap
Stat of the week
$300M
Oracle's new subscription to 10 to 20% of the Point Beach nuclear plant's output is projected to save other We Energies customers roughly this much in fuel costs over the next five years, even as Oracle itself absorbs the rising cost of the energy it locks in.
In depth
Reference: terms in this issue
Preliminary Safety Analysis Report: The technical and safety detail an advanced-reactor applicant files with the NRC as the second phase of a construction permit application, after the initial work-authorization request and environmental report.
Conditional loan commitment: DOE's preliminary approval to lend, issued before a borrower meets the technical, legal and financial conditions required to actually close and draw the funds.
Energy supply agreement: A contract distinct from a power purchase agreement; it buys existing output from a utility's wider fleet rather than funding new capacity at one plant.
Deal
Google Funds an 890 MW Uprate at Constellation
Before: Constellation's PJM reactors had no hyperscaler directly funding capacity upgrades until Amazon's Calvert Cliffs deal a week earlier.
Now: Google and Constellation signed
a 20-year power purchase agreement on October 6 funding $4.3 billion of uprates across 11 reactors in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, adding 890 MW, with the first uprate expected by 2028. A separate 15-year, 2,700 MW energy supply agreement covers more of Constellation's PJM fleet, and a five-year technology alliance brings in Google Cloud and Gemini for grid management. Constellation says the deal sustains about 4,400 existing jobs and creates about 7,200 construction jobs; its shares
rose 12% the day it was announced.
Watch: Whether other hyperscalers fund uprates at Constellation's remaining PJM reactors
Deal
DOE Offers Vistra $4.2 Billion for Three Reactor Uprates
Before: Vistra's Beaver Valley, Davis-Besse and Perry plants had no federal financing lined up for uprates, unlike peers already backed by DOE loans for restarts.
Now: DOE's Office of Energy Dominance Financing
offered Vistra a conditional loan of up to $4.2 billion on October 5 to fund uprates and modernization at the three plants, preserving nearly 4 GW of existing capacity and adding 433 MW of new output. The commitment also includes an option to finance future uprates at Vistra's Comanche Peak plant in Texas. The work would support about 3,000 project-related jobs and extend plant operation up to 20 years beyond current license terms.
Watch: Whether Vistra satisfies the conditions needed to close the loan
Regulatory
Holtec Clears a Second Gate for Its Michigan SMRs
Before: Pioneer 1 and 2 cleared the first construction-permit phase in February, when the NRC docketed Holtec's limited work authorization request and environmental report.
Now: Holtec
submitted its Preliminary Safety Analysis Report to the NRC on September 30, completing the second of three phases in the construction permit application for two SMR-300 reactors at the Palisades site. The NRC issued its draft safety evaluation on that first phase on August 31. Its
published schedule puts the draft environmental impact statement at October 31 and the advanced safety evaluation at January 31, 2027. Pioneer 1 and 2 would add about 680 MW combined, 340 MWe per unit.
Watch: Whether the NRC holds its own January 31 date for the advanced safety evaluation
Global signal
China
China's Linglong-1, a 125 MW reactor in Hainan, reportedly began
hot functional testing this month: full temperature, no fuel loaded yet.
Fuel load and grid connection are due by year-end, which would make it the world's first onshore commercial SMR.
Question of the week
“The NRC is due to publish its advanced safety evaluation on Holtec’s Palisades reactors by January 31, 2027. Does it post on time?
ENTEL’s call
YES
It means no open safety items remain.
The permit decision comes later.
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Until next Thursday,
Jace Arnold
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